A bounds analysis of world food futures : global agriculture through to 2050

摘要

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated.Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project globalagricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future whereaggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of thisresult is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita incomegrowth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significantbut secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does ourprojected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisagein biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth hasgenerally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projectedcontinuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivityare still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to cropswould need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper-bound (highconsumption)scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agriculturalland to more than meet the demand without ploughing-in additional forestdominatedlands.